Predictions for 2012
Started by ndfanwabashman on Monday, 6th February 2012 6:08 pm
I'm a little late to the game this being February 6th, but I didn't see a predictions thread for 2012.
First a little look back at 2011 predictions:
the crystal balls of VT readers
A couple of highlights:
Chuckmonster had foreseen that the Cosmo would remain independent. Doesn't seem as bold now, but many in the comments thought different. He also called the Octavius tower opening.
encompassingimages wisely pointed out the idiot who robbed the Bellagio at gunpoint would totally get busted.
vespajet stated at least one high end restaurant would close. Not but a few weeks later Alex shuttered it's doors. He also stated the Sahara would continue to suffer, he was certainly on the right track.
Your own, ndfanwabashman correctly predicted the Maloof's to sell a majority stake in the Palms. They have kept the Kings, although God only knows where they will end up.
saharalv prognosticated that several restaurants would close but 15 new burger joints would open. I haven't done the math, but that sounds about right.
donnymac gets it right out of the shoot and calls the Bellagio remodel.
All-in-all some good guesses. We all gave too much credit to Tropicana and not enough to The Plaza.
My predictions for 2012:
- The Riviera closes it's doors for good.
- Fitzgerald's goes through with the plan to rename the joint "The D" and continues a downtown renaissance.
- The Linq will make progress, but no wheel will spin in '12.
- Harrah's gives a remodel to their standard room replicating the Fab rooms at Flamingo.
- The NBA will announce a return to Vegas with the all star game in '13.
- The Palms will do something spectacular to lure guests back. It will fail.
Let's hear yours!
Okie21 responded on Monday, 6th February 2012
Call me optimistic, but I'm saying either Echelon or F-bleu will resume construction, and my money is on F-bleu.
Also, a renovation of 4Queens.
Tiger Woods is seen with a mistress in LV (just playing the odds on this one)
And, flights and hotel rates continue to rise while comps continue to decrease... ok, that wasn't so optimistic...
donnymac66 responded on Monday, 6th February 2012
Good topic!!
I predict that the D is not going to be the name of Fitz instead it is meant to distract people. The real name will be the Q ;)
Wynn will revamp their website again and it will look exactly like the old one.
Treasure Island will add a Claimjumper to their restaurant lineup, it will take the place of Canter's Deli
Harmon will be blowed up real good
Fountain blow will be dismantled piece by piece and be sold for cash
Tropicana will come to terms with their mid-tier status and embrace those guests and re-focus their energy on competing with Flamingo, Monte Carlo, Luxor, Harrahs and Ballys
Lynyrd Skynyrd BBQ will host VIMFP 2012
NeverJustJ replied on Monday, 6th February 2012
Treasure Island + Claim Jumper = WINNING!
vespajet responded on Monday, 6th February 2012
At least two more long running shows will announce their closure this year, one of them a Cirque Du Soleil show (Shows whose closures have already been announced don't count, i.e. Phantom and Viva Elvis.).
Wayne F. Newton's plans to turn Shenandoah into a tourist attraction will come to an abrupt end as he gets into tax trouble with the IRS.
The Fremont Street Experience will announce a major overhaul in which the Viva Vision screen is replaced with a new hi-def screen that features 3D tech that doesn't require glasses. In addition, the retail kiosks will be done away with and one casino will build a beer garden.
The Downtown Grand will be forced to drop the Grand name after being served a C & D by MGM Resorts.
Binion's will begin to reopen their hotel rooms.
Nothing will happen in regards to the Sahara......
Boyd Gaming will announce the restart of Echelon, but with a major reduction to the overall size of the project.
The Siegel Group will buy The Western and give it the Gold Spike makeover.
RateVegas replied on Monday, 6th February 2012
Ah, I predict Echelon has no activity in 2012 but that we *do* get an announcement that Fontainebleau is being taken down.
hail2skins replied on Tuesday, 7th February 2012
The FSE prediction is intriguing. Derek Stevens indicated in a recent interview that a big FSE announcement is coming soon........curious to see what it will be.
vespajet replied on Tuesday, 7th February 2012
The Five Hundy interview is where I picked up the ball and started running, since Derek's said it would be something to the effect that will definite the Fremont Street Experience.
NeverJustJ responded on Monday, 6th February 2012
Restaurant tenants for Linq will be announced and will include:
-Fuddruckers
-Yard House
-California Pizza Kitchen
-Elephant Bar (for special occasions!)
-and some kind of hybrid comedy club/dinner theatre/night club featuring dueling pianos, drinks with stupid names that friends dare each other to drink, freezer-to-fryer cuisine and video games &/or billiards (wait...this is Harrah's...I mean pool tables) &/or bowling.
Long shot, a Hamburger Mary's! (This one I'm a little bit serious about...if any major strip company is going to tip its hat to the LGBT community, it's going to be Harrah's...and really a Hamburger Mary's would be a pretty safe way to do it.)
The Monorail will simply stop running in late spring. No one will notice until the 4th of July.
vespajet replied on Tuesday, 7th February 2012
Maybe they'll put in a Dave & Busters......
Halton responded on Monday, 6th February 2012
MGM will cut Mirage loose...probably to CET.
vespajet replied on Tuesday, 7th February 2012
CET would probably have to divest themselves of a property in Las Vegas to make that happen. If Mirage is sold, the likely buyer is right next door at T.I.
RateVegas responded on Monday, 6th February 2012
Fun thread, though for the record, Linq isn't scheduled to open until 2013 and I think 'The D' is a done deal, so those are sorta cheating a little bit. ;-)
I (still) predict that Swinger's Club at Plaza will be closed before September (one year anniversary).
I predict Bobby Baldwin will leave MGM.
I predict that Harmon will still be standing at the end of 2012.
The last two are wild guesses but it will be fun to see what happens.
donnymac66 replied on Monday, 6th February 2012
I think the D is being floated out there as the name but it will not ultimately be. It is too boring although M seems to have made out ok.
vespajet replied on Tuesday, 7th February 2012
Five Hundy's interview last week seems to indicate that the D may not be the name they're going with. All along, I've thought it was a red herring myself, as if they really wanted to keep the name a secret, they wouldn't have made it so easy to find the trademark and copyright applications.
ndfanwabashman replied on Tuesday, 7th February 2012
So I'll amend it to say the wheel won't spin in '13 either.
Also, I was responding to the report that it would NOT be called the D. I think they do go with that and the word got out a little too early so now they are trying to throw us off the scent.
parchedearth responded on Monday, 6th February 2012
LVH finds a new dance partner (possibly Marriott) with an injection of cash for a marginal refresh to capture the convention crowd.
Cosmo fixes its hotel issues, pays attention to gamblers, and posts a quarterly profit in the 4th quarter.
Linq gets everyone excited. It turns out to be well done and a great addition to the strip. (Early prediction for 2013)
Both MGM and Caesars divest at least one property (to raise funds) - probably Rio and Mirage. Regardless, both continue to suffer from massive debt loads.
Sahara remains closed with no construction in sight (despite several declarations to the contrary).
Downtown continues its rebirth and becomes a viable alternative for upper mid-tier tourists.
Room rates become a big topic of discussion as they return to the 2007 peaks.
HillBilly responded on Monday, 6th February 2012
Chuck, Hunter and Dr. Dave will pool together all their resources in a new company called RateVegasTrippingGang. (RVTG from now on.) The IPO of this Vegas powerhouse will dwarf even that of Facebook. Flush with cash, RVTG will buy WynnCore (including Roger Thomas) to be used as a home base from which to plot a take over of the gambling world. Dr. Dave will buy the Star Trek Experience to be used as his personal office space. Chuck will hire Tool to play as his personal alarm clock every morning/afternoon. Hunter will build a lab to reanimate Steve Jobs as his personal Vegas Mate consultant. Finally, RVTG will buy The Riviera, The Sahara, F'n Blew, and The Harmon just for the sheer joy of blowing shit up and watching it fall down. As a long shot prediction, Chuck might buy the Cosmo and blow it up also.
levans responded on Tuesday, 7th February 2012
The Harmon will be turned into tiny pieces of glass.
Since Fontanbleu's shell is there someone with huge nuts will try to make a go of the place.
Echelon will remain a pile of girders until Boyd makes an announcement for it's future at the end of the year.
Carrot Top and Criss Angel will continue to suck.
Madonna will be the next addition to the Caesar's Palace rotation.
The Sahara will look like it does right now.
The Kardashian store in Cosmo will close.
NeverJustJ replied on Tuesday, 7th February 2012
Madonna at CP seems possible, very possible.
LeoNYC replied on Tuesday, 7th February 2012
Not in 2012. Madonna has just released her new World Tour dates and she will be travelling around Europe and the US till the end of this year. Maybe in 2013...
vespajet replied on Tuesday, 7th February 2012
I didn't know there was a Kardashian store at Cosmo, I thought it was at Mirage.
apollo28 replied on Tuesday, 7th February 2012
The earliest Madonna would to Cesars is 2014
StudiodeKadent responded on Tuesday, 7th February 2012
- Mirage is unlikely to be sold off. First, signs are that Vegas itself is stabilizing, even though I admit I'm not particularly confident about the economy as a whole in the short and medium term. Second, when MGM sells its stake in Borgata, that will provide them with at least some funds to play with. Third, MGM is very likely to be allowed to expand onto Cotai in Macau, and Macau tends to print money. This all seems to indicate that MGM won't need to get rid of Mirage.
Is it possible that Mirage will be sold off? It's certainly a possibility. For one, MGM Grand and Mandalay Bay cater to the same upper-mid-market (with Luxor, Monte Carlo and NYNY serving the lower-mid-market) tier that Mirage does, and selling off Mirage would therefore not particularly harm MGM's ability to cater to that market segment.
I suspect that IF the stake in Borgata doesn't sell for very much at all, and/or if the Cotai expansion isn't approved this year, the probability of Mirage being sold will increase. If both conditions occur, I'd suspect the probability of Mirage being sold will become significant.
If it is sold, however, I think it will be sold to Ruffin. CEC has too much debt, has to work on maintenance of its other properties, and has the Linq to worry about.
So, that's Prediction 1) Mirage is unlikely to be sold, but if the Borgata stake sells for pittance and/or MGM Cotai is not approved, Mirage is more likely to be sold to Ruffin.
- Vegas is probably going to display slow, steady growth over the course of this year, although if we get hyperinflation or a double-dip-recession or something along those lines then yeah.... shudder.
So that's Prediction 2) Vegas will likely show slow, steady, modest recovery growth over the course of this year, barring a sudden worsening of economic conditions (and disclosure; I do think this is a possibility).
- This is a Macau prediction, and it is unlikely to happen this year but I think it is important; the Macau SAR government will give plots 7&8 on Cotai to SJM and claim that they're doing it to "increase competition" and "prevent Sands China from monopolizing the Cotai Strip." In other words they will justify their corporatist cronyism with market-esque rhetoric. Typical.
So that's Prediction 3) It probably won't happen this year, but plots 7&8 on Cotai will end up with SJM.
- With the MGM Grand being renovated, Bellagio just getting its renovations etc., I think MGM are basically renovating all their properties in "pecking order." I'd expect after Bellagio and MGM Grand are complete, you'd probably get Mandalay Bay renovated as well.
So that's Prediction 4) Mandalay Bay/THE Hotel will get renovations, and then we can expect the rest of the "Neighbourhood" properties will get renovations in time.
- Caesars are going to HAVE to start doing some love on their properties. I think after Linq, Caesars will focus on maintenance, upgrades and giving some attention to their properties.
So that's Prediction 5) Caesars will this year finally stop fetishizing 'deferred maintenance' and start getting its resorts back up to par. I'd expect them to start with Paris since it is embarassingly in need of help.
BigHoss responded on Tuesday, 7th February 2012
1) I will go there at least once.
2) I will win some.
3) I will lose some.
4) I will eat and drink and be merry.
5) Oh yeah, and all that stuff Donnymac said.
Spyder replied on Tuesday, 7th February 2012
What he said and in turn what the big man said.....actually now I wonder who is bigger, BigHoss or DonnyMac, as I know one (borderline intimately) and the others name is "Big"...... but I digress
also
-I'm thinking at least Celebutard Douche Nozzle will be paid to "host" a party at some club (day or night) and not show up and people will complain online about it, but that is all
-Vegas will not run out of Jack Daniel's,no matter how much I drink or how many times I try
-I will make an ass of myself somehow, and DonnyMac will have video or photographic evidence of it and he will happily share it with the world
Drake responded on Tuesday, 7th February 2012
-Harrah's brings bingo back to midstrip.
-A new antibiotic-resistant gonorrhea strain is discovered in Hard Rock pool; Rehab names a drink after it.
-Wynn begins slide to ersatz luxury status by continuing to woo no-class douchebag market while alienating older monied guests. Steve Wynn finally forgets what made him great. Sheldon Adelson snickers.
-Venetian offers free night stay to the one loyal video poker player who racks up 10,000,000 Grazie points in 2012. Mid-week, of course.
-Kardashians disappear from club scene, host no NYE 2012 parties. The city rejoices.
socalduck responded on Tuesday, 7th February 2012
Okay, here are three:
1. The LVH becomes the Las Vegas Sheraton.
2. Wynn's stock continues to flounder, drops below $100, and becomes the target of an unfriendly takeover attempt.
3. The Paris balloon finally gets a fresh coat of paint.
brandon responded on Tuesday, 7th February 2012
1.A new non-cirque show enters the space Viva Elvis is in Q4.
2.I might come home with more money than i go to vegas with even though this is about as likley as me giving up gambling,smoking and food for a year.
3. Hooters does something news worthy. I am surprised every trip that it still has guests in its rooms and people in its casino.
***I think this idea might be the best ever***
4. A kids only hotel goes in place of Harmen. Stroller spaces at the tables. Jean-Phillepe baby food. Baby sitters available for a dollar per minute. Kardashian diaper store, 150 per diaper but loaded in glitter and ed hardy logo's.
Trevelbond responded on Tuesday, 7th February 2012
- The Linq project is scaled back.
- Absolutely nothing happens at the Sahara.
- The Effing-Blew will be at least partially dismantled.
- The Lady Luck renovation will experience delays or cease.
- Nothing happens at Echelon.
- Room renovations announced for Luxor.
- Las Vegas Club announces renovation for whole property.
- The Harmon is imploded. I rush to town to see the place come down.
- Harrah's takes over the Plams.
BillDonovan responded on Tuesday, 7th February 2012
- Caesars Entertainment Corp's IPO, released today under symbol CZR, will have a struggling share price in 2012.
- Both the new Mob Attraction Las Vegas, and the new downtown Mob Museum, will survive 2012 and still be open into 2013.
- Boyd Gaming will announce sometime in 2012 as to when construction will start again on Echelon Place.
- More hotel casinos on the strip will BAN strollers from being in the casino.
- Would rather see MGM Resorts announce in 2012 the spin off of Mandalay Bay, not the Mirage.
- Tim Tebow will lead the Broncos back to the playoffs, and will celebrate next January in a Penhouse Suite at the same hotel as the AVN awards in Las Vegas. Again.
jinx73 responded on Wednesday, 8th February 2012
Thanks to ndfanwabashman for going back and finding the '11 predictions, I thought about them as the yr rolled around, but was too lazy to do so.
Here's mine for 2011:
1. The Trop will be sold, after advertising they were going to correctly align themselves and their marketing, they decide to sell, citing that they can't compete with the conglomerates and their player database.
2. We will only see one puff piece on Sam Nazarian in regards to the Sahara for the whole year. No work will commence on the property.
3. Room rates will continue to increase. Small players like Riviera, LVH, Strat, and TI will also push the envelope with the conglomerates leading the way.
4. Late Q3 or early Q4, Caesars will announce the new name for the IP and how the Linq construction will affect it during the rebranding. (They will not close hotel completely at any time during the renovations)
5. Echelon and F'bleau continue to stagnate. Boyd teases everyone by taking a long pause on their Q2 conf. after they say the word "Echelon" only to be followed by market speak for 'no change'. Uncle Carl's emporium continues to waste away, he's reminded he owns it during a Q4 call with investors.
6. Rio has two rumors of it's sale come up, neither come to fruition.
7. Bills is brought under TR, announcement that Palms will be in 2013.
Here's what I would have liked to see happen.
1. Boyd makes aggressive push for Riviera, Cosmo, LVH, Rio or the Trop, basically any combination of the two, deciding that it needs a presence on the strip before prices inflate again.
2. Rio is sold to the Maloofs, they give up any remaining control of Palms.
3. LVH gets an owner that has a clue.
4. After the article "The New Vegas?" runs on USA Today cover showing the bad side of the Paris Balloon, an embarrassed Gary Loveman holds a press conference announcing that they are indeed going to do some maintenance and renovations.
5. Binion's reopens their hotel, LL remodel gets underway and Plaza starts getting a facelift. Downtown continues a resurgence putting in amenities that strip dwellers are looking for, without the high end markup of the strip.